Funded by The Australian Research Council (Discovery Project)
Funding Amount: $636,574
Project start date: 2026
Researchers
- A/Prof Yanrong Yang (CI), ANU
- A/Prof Fei Huang (CI), University of New South Wales
- Prof Samuel Muller (CI), Macquarie University
Project Description
This project seeks to create a new framework for statistical analysis that improves prediction accuracy, fairness, and transparency, while also accounting for uncertainty in data over time and space. It focuses on improving statistical methods for complex data, particularly in addressing the challenges of climate change’s impact on insurance pricing. The goal is to develop fairer, more reliable methods for pricing life insurance and planning for retirement, with a focus on ensuring better outcomes for all. The research aims to reduce inequalities and improve public health and social services, ultimately helping Australians adapt to climate change.
National Interest Statement
Australians rely on life insurance and superannuation to protect their financial wellbeing in retirement. However, growing uncertainty-driven by climate change, rapid advances in AI, rising inequality, and an ageing population-threatens the sustainability and fairness of these systems. This project develops new statistical tools for responsible retirement risk management, supporting both fair insurance pricing and sustainable superannuation portfolio investment. By modelling how climate risks affect mortality across regions, genders, and age groups, the research will improve how risks are measured, priced, and managed across the retirement system with greater fairness and accountability. It will also support superannuation fund managers in constructing ESG-aligned portfolios. Outcomes will benefit retirees, regulators (APRA, ASIC), policymakers (Treasury, DSS), insurers, fund managers, and actuarial professionals, while advancing fairer outcomes for the general public-especially vulnerable communities. To maximise adoption, the project will engage closely with industry through workshops, public reports, and open-source software tools for training. Findings will be communicated through public-facing media, toolkits, and targeted stakeholder engagement. This research supports national priorities in Supporting Healthy and Thriving Communities and contributes to Sustainable Development Goals including Gender Equality, Reduced Inequalities, and Climate Action.